Brexit Briefing: It's the Final Countdown

There is only a year left until the UK leaves the EU. The negotiating parties have made significant strides since the June 2016 referendum. However, there is still uncertainty about what a post-Brexit UK looks like.

 

What does this mean for my business?

• The Confederation of British Industry has welcomed the progress made to date but has urged for further progress to be made quickly.
• The insurance sector requires clarity on cross-country regulations, especially as policies taken out now will extend past the 29th March 2019.
• An MP committee have advised that no trade agreement would be disastrous for the UK food and drink industry.
• With a lack of free movement, care sectors are already seeing a shortage of vital staff.
• In the automobile sector, Rolls Royce has confirmed that they are looking into a contingency plan and Nissan and Toyota are carefully watching negotiations in case they are required to leave the UK.

 

What does this mean for the economy?

The UK economy, thankfully, managed to avoid a sudden recession post-referendum – but that does not mean it came away unscathed.  Sterling took a dive the day after the referendum, which had not been seen in 30 years. It has since risen but continues to be 5% lower than the pre-referendum peak. Sterling remains vulnerable, but experts believe an amicable separation from the EU will help to stabilise it. Business investment saw an annual drop in 2016. It is believed that businesses have paused investment until the post-Brexit trade picture is clearer. Growth is the biggest indicator of a negative impact of the Brexit vote. The UK has gone from the top of the G7 growth table to the bottom. It’s not all bad news, though. Unemployment rates are at a very low rate of around 4.3%. A tighter labour market also now appears to be leading to stronger wage growth, with the growth of regular pay picking up to its highest level for over two years.

 

Continuing talks between the UK and the EU

Negotiations have been made about the UK’s withdrawal. The next steps are talks on the possible future relationship between the EU and the UK.

• Trade talks have finally begun between the UK and the EU.
• One major topic is the Irish border. With the government adamant that the UK will leave the Customs Union, many wonder whether this will force a hard border.

 

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